Pre budget Note 2015

Pre budget Note

Narendra Modi Government is presenting first full fledged budget this week.

The “Achchhe din” Slogan is in the mind of people and expecting relief from this Government.

As everybody’s belief, I too believe that this is the Pro Growth Government. But… Please Wait, whose growth? “Growth of country?” or “Growth of certain class of People?”  Remember, A Dynamic Government will take all possible action to bring fiscal discipline. And Discipline is never a well accepted idea among any citizen class. But, if we want to see our country on Real Term Growth Path, we should not be surprised by some “unexpected and shocking” proposals in this budget.

Why I am cautious about Budget proposals? Government has to win subsequent state elections. The primary agenda is to acquire majority in upper house (Rajya Sabha). Hence, some populist proposals are expected to satisfy large number of society. 

On the other hand, Government is likely to eye on raising the revenue. So, it may give surprise by abolishing/reducing some of the tax benefits; limit the possibilities of tax arbitrage and tax evasion techniques. Within the tax rules, there are ways to reduce tax burden. Smart people benefit from such proposals. I strongly believe that there will be rationalization in tax benefits schemes. Some “Popular among select class” tax savings benefits may be the history.

So, in my one line take is “Only Expect the unexpected from this Budget”.

There is a probability of benefits to defence and “Make in India” intensive industries and giving boost to Import substitute industries thus targeting more employment generation. So focus will be on controlling Fiscal Deficit and Current Account Deficit.

We put a cautious message in our February News letter for portfolio restructuring prior to announcement of budget & Smart investors have started portfolio restructuring activities. Naturally, front runners will have advantage over others.

 Mr. Siddharth Shah. 

Chief Officer, Shalibhadra Master Investment Broker.

Experience of 33 years in Investment and Financial Industry.

Contact - +91-9426516073

Email - invest@shalibhadra.in

Facebook - Shalibhadra Master Investment Broker.

At this level, Should I enter in to equity or Not?

Investors who are outside the “room” are still waiting for a comfortable time to enter in to Equity market. They carry the "Great Fear Factor”, hence they are extra aware on Capital Protection. They believe that Sensex has reached to highest level and may crash any time. The comfort entry level for retail investors is “Is everybody buying Equity?” But that is the disastrous thinking.

I think my duty is to convey a "Welcome to the market” message to all “Investors in Waiting”. So, I will try to convert market in to three levels.

1. Attractive Level: Here the probability and quantum of loss is very less while growth potential is very high. Financial Advisors are trying hard to convey this opportunity message. But the sad part is, investors are not ready to listen a single word from their Financial Advisor. Friends, this attractive level was 2012 and 2013 but it is history now. 

2. Comfortable Level: Here the probability and quantum of loss is low while probability of growth is high. Financial Advisers are trying to show the possibilities of new market high supported with economy data and market history data. This is a sincere effort of showing great opportunity lies ahead. Only Smart investors are listening and start investing. But the sad part is, investors are investing halfheartedly. They invest small amount of what really they can. Friends, this comfortable level is NOW.

3. Risk Level: Here the probability and quantum of loss is very high while growth potential is very low. Financial Advisers are trying to convey message of caution. But the sad part is, investors are not ready to listen a single word and invest heavily in the market. After a bad experience, these investors establish a prejudicial negative opinion for market.

Financial Advisers have better availability of various data, advantage to identify the market levels (as discussed above) on certain parameters. So, in an uncertain market environment, Financial Advisers are best guide for investors. They advise according to risk appetite and investment time horizon of investors.

 

A layman investor invests in Bull Phase (High) and get out of market during Bear Phase (Low) with bad experience. This is done for years, is being done now and probably will continue the same in time to come. So next time when you invest, try to find out an experienced, mature financial adviser instead of looking what other layman investors are doing.

 

 

 Mr. Siddharth Shah. 

Chief Officer, Shalibhadra Master Investment Broker.

Experience of 33 years in Investment and Financial Industry.

Contact - 9426516073

Email - invest@shalibhadra.in

Facebook - Shalibhadra Master Investment Broker.