Tuesday, October 2, 2012


The all time common question asked is “Shun lage chhe?”, ‘’Kya lagta hai?”

The funny answer to it is ‘’Shenu shu lage chhe?”

There are many things where we can discuss the “Lage Chhe” effect. Predictions are expected for Rain, Budget, Mehngai (Inflation), Gold, Real estate & of course Equity Sensex.

Everybody try to get some immediate relief by asking two lines & others reply to it as if they know everything and should at least speak something when asked.

Since long before, I am being asked these questions for Equity Sensex predictions. Replying to this common question “Kya lagta hai” before 25 years, in the very initial years of my career, I used to become serious to reply & though having no deep clue of market, I used to deliver my opinion on market. However, I accept that most of the predictions I made have not met because they were copied. I was using somebody’s words.

But now the time has changed. I know that everybody express their views with their own vested interest. Fund raisers presentations are so designed that listeners are attracted to invest in their scheme. Some media presents / highlights some schemes and performance which are smartly prepared considering specific time period which is in favour of the scheme they want to promote.

Isn’t it sounding like darkness every where? I think it is tough to share market predictions with confidence. However, while predicting anything, proper pros & cons must be shared with listeners. Everybody should consider that market runs on fundamentals, demand/supply rules, uncertainties and Greed & fear factors.

My Latest market predictions in the form of KAL (Jan –Sep 2012), AAJ (Sept-Oct 2012) & KAL (2013), may read with all uncertainties on market regarding Politics, inflation, Interest rates, trade deficit, fiscal deficit, & lot more.

  • High crude prices. Hence very weak Indian currency
  • High Inflation, Poor GDP data
Foreign (vested) interest
  • Rating agencies declining India’s ratings
  • Negative comments from foreign media for Indian leadership & government
Indian Investor’s behavior
  • Stressed investors having no returns in last 5 years of investment sells most equity in belief that market will not perform.
  • FII (Foreign interests) came in to buy this equity.
  • Foreign (vested) interests have created situation that Indian government has to open doors for FDI in various sectors.
  • Indian government turns into “Show off” mood.
  • Declares FDI in retail & other sectors, Diesel price hike etc.
Foreign (vested) interest
  • Heavy and continuous buying of equity by FII
  • High inflow of dollars and Indian rupee improving.
Indian investor’s behavior
  • With fear in mind of market to go down, more Indians selling their equity.
  • Foreign (vested) interests finally succeeded in mission to make the Indian government to open the doors for FDI in various sectors.
  •  Crude prices going down
  • Rating agencies improves India’s rating
  • Foreign media praising positive steps by government
  • Expectations of GDP to be on right track once again
Foreign (vested) interest
  • Rupee is gaining (say below 50) and equities gains to new hype mode.
  • FII gradually starts booking profit.
  • FII benefits from
o   Purchased equities at high rupee price
o   Stock market gain over period of time
o   Selling equities at low rupee price
Indian investor’s behavior
  •  “India shining” hype is created.
  • In “Rahi Gayo” mood, buy stocks crazily at high prices
  • FII makes profit while Indian investors locked with buying at high price.

I have done a risky prediction of market, but the sad end of this story that My fellow Indian investors are expected to be losers in this game if they are not smart enough.